Donegal’s five TD’s battle to hold seats
By John McAteer, Editor, Tirconaill Tribune
With the Taoiseach confirming the date of the General Election for Friday February 26th, the campaign is set to move into top year this weekend to elect 158 Deputies to the 32nd Dail.
The deadline for nominations is noon on next Thursday.
For the first time since 1977 Donegal will lose one Deputy to Sligo-Leitrim-West Cavan.
The county’s new TD’s will each represent a population base of 30,472 and the constituency has some 152,358 residents with an anticipated turnout of around 80,000 voters on polling day.
So far fourteen candidates have declared their intentions to run in Donegal. They include Gary Doherty (SF): Pearse Doherty (SF): Pat the Cope Gallagher (FF): Paula Flanagan (Greens): Paddy Harte Jnr (FG): Tim Jackson (Independent): Niamh Kennedy (Independent): Pádraig Mac Lochlainn SF): Frank McBrearty, Jnr (Independent): Charlie McConalogue (FF): Ian McGarvey (Independent): Joe McHugh (FG): Thomas Pringle (Independent): Dessie Shiels (Independent).
The Labour Party search for a candidate in Donegal continued over the weekend but despite approaches to a number of figures no name has emerged as a likely runner. The party has one public representative in Donegal with Cllr. Martin Farren in Moville who held his seat for the party at the local elections in 2014.
For the first time in 89 years no ‘Blaney’ name has yet come forward and with polling day now identified there has been no news from the Dublin based family of the late Neil Blaney about their electoral intentions.
Donegal is a new five -seat constituency which has been created by the amalgamation of two former three seat constituencies. Close to 9,000 people from the south of the county have been transferred to the new Sligo-Leitrim and West Cavan constituency. The nine areas are south of Laghey in Ballintra, Ballyshannon and Bundoran.
An election without Dinny!
With Deputy Dinny McGinley retiring after 34 consecutive years in the Dail, Donegal has five sitting TDs fighting for the five seats on offer.
The main areas of population are Letterkenny – 20,000: Buncrana, population – 7,000. Ballybofey–Stranorlar has while Donegal Town has around 5,000 are among the larger centres where much of the election battles will be fought.
The sprawling rural hinterland around Kilmacrennan, Termon Ramelton, Rathmullan, Kilmacrennan, Milford, Fanad and Mevagh will play a pivotal role, especially for Joe McHugh who resides in Carrigart.
This part of the constituency will be watched with particular interest given that Fine Gael lost their seat here in the local elections in 2014.
Role of Gaeltacht is important
The Donegal Gaeltacht will also have a big says in who gets elected. It has a population of close to 25,000 and without the McGinley name on the ballot paper for the first time since 1982 much depends on how Joe McHugh can harness this vote in his role as a junior minister.
The Rosses, Gaoth Dobhair and Cloughaneely constitute the main centres of population of the Gaeltacht here and with a population of just over 16,000 is considered to be the most rurally populated area in the EU.
With a big number of candidates chasing the five seats getting into the frame of the top six on the first count will be vital.
For electoral purposes Donegal can be broken into distinct areas which each have a unique identity and strongly supported local champions – the Inishowen Peninsula, the Milford (Fanad) Peninsula, the greater Letterkenny area, Glenties encompassing much of the Donegal Gaeltacht, Donegal Town to the south west and finally the Finn Valley area around the twin towns of Ballybofey – Stranolar.
Letterkenny is by far the largest urban area in the county. It is an added complication that Fine Gael is the only mainstream party running a candidate from the town. In these circumstances, this should help FG’s Paddy Harte but the presence of Independent Cllr. Dessie Shiels will add to the interest.
Shiels polled 5% in the local elections and his vote of just under a thousand will have to increase substantially past 5,000 to stay in the race for long enough to attract vital preferences. Since this is Paddy Harte’s first foray into politics his vote is hard to quantify or indeed to what extent can he hold the former Fine Gael Harte vote in this part of Donegal.
The numbers are fairly evenly balanced across the constituency but with strong local voting patterns it’s likely that two Deputies will be elected from each of the old constituencies. The final seat is in the balance, perhaps the floating voters will decide. Therefore it is hard to call with a battle expected to develop as the transfers of Independents are distributed. As the population in Donegal North East slightly exceeds that of the southern end of the constituency, candidates in this region may have an advantage in the battle for supremacy.
Sinn Féin has taken a major step forward in running three candidates and the will depend on Cllr. Gary Doherty in the Finn Valley to pull in a sizeable vote there to try and maximise transfers as the count develops beyond the fourth count.
Vote management to secure multiple seats is something new for SF and voters aren’t used to having a choice amongst three runners. It will be interesting to see the impact of this as the count progresses.
Pearse Doherty and Padraig MacLochlainn are high profile national politicians in these past five years. Doherty has huge voter recognition nationally due to his expert analyses of his financial brief. Padraig MacLochlainn’s home base in Buncrana on the Inishowen peninsula will give him a strong foundation and the main battle here will between SF and FF’s Charlie McConalogue.
Running three candidates is a safe strategy for a party that is close to two quotas and it remains to be seen how close to 40% of the first preference vote they can achieve.
FG hit by poor local elections
Fine Gael’s strategists will be worried about the huge decreases in their vote at the 2014 local elections when they dropped over 9,300 votes. Even on a very good day it is almost impossible to visualise them retaining their second seat. Paddy Harte was a late addition to their ticket. However the concept of selecting two candidates and dividing the vote equally can backfire if there’s only one possible seat available. The fact that after a search lasting for five years, FG was unable to come up with a credible candidate in the West Donegal Gaeltacht is not the best foundation on which to retain the status quo in this constituency.
Donegal has been a hotbed for opposition to property charges and charging for public water. This is going to have an impact that is difficult to quantify.
However Joe McHugh has used delivered for Donegal and realistically he should retain his seat.
In a sprawling five seater it will be very hard for one party candidate to cover all the ground and every runner will be fighting their own corner irrespective of party tag.
Fianna Fáil’s Charlie McConalogue is also well known given his five years. He’s also done well in the Dail and as Donegal’s only FF Deputy in Leinster House one might presume that he’s a safe bet to be returned – albeit with a real battle.
While he is from north Inishowen close to Carn, there is a party vote in the peninsula which must deliver a solid 5,500/6,000 votes and then to take a further 3,000 elsewhere. However FF’s base on the Inishowen Peninsula has come under severe pressure from SF and McConalogue’s fate is dependent on how he holds off this challenge from MacLochlainn.
The fact that FG is not running an Inishowen candidate will also be a positive factor for McConalogue in the transfer market.
In Donegal South West the outcome is proving hard to call. On the one hand there is no FG runner on the ground and much will depend to what extent Joe McHugh can hold this vote.
Gallagher returns to national politics
For FF, Pat the Cope Gallagher is a professional constituency worker and his zest for political battles is well known.
He’s been pulling in big numbers at his ‘Town Hall Meetings’ and perhaps nobody else in Donegal can command such political loyalty. “The Cope” has had a lengthy career in politics since 1979. And if elected he will return to the Dail to celebrate his 68th birthday on March 10th.
His political career and his experience may be vital for him as the electorate votes on February 26th.
In reality FF has two evenly matched candidates, whichever gets ahead of the other will definitely win a seat but party activists are very divided on the outcome… they still hope to win back at least one of the seats lost in 2011.
If the local election performance of Fianna Fáil can be repeated then both candidate should be in the frame in the first count with just over 65% of a quota each: that’s a very big if because to achieve this first count position they’d need to be close to 18,000 votes. This is the kind of benchmark that any party seeking two seats must aim for in the first instance.
Significantly both FF candidates will need big transfers and they both appeal to different voters.
What about the Independent vote?
There’s a significant independent vote base in Donegal. This may even be close to the largest segment in the constituency. The most high profile independent candidate is Deputy Thomas Pringle who benefited from the Fianna Fáil meltdown in 2011 to grab the last seat in Donegal South West.
As an Independent he will stand out from the other Independents in the constituency, provided his vote is retained and does not go to Sinn Fein. He runs a very busy constituency organisation and with the support of two high profile Cllrs. in his corner he will prove to be a very formidable runner.
But Cllr Niamh. Kennedy is also in his backyard. She topped the poll in Killybegs in the local elections and will undoubtedly impact sharply on Pringle’s local vote.
Cllr. Frank McBrearty Jnr is another independent candidate who could get a very strong vote but he’s got to expand his votes base well outside the Finn Valley and his native town of Raphoe.
Another candidate getting a lot of news space in Tim Jackson whose campaign to clean up politics has struck a chord or two outside of his native Finn Valley. of the golden circle of political perks and privileges. I want prudent, selfless leaders who stand in solidarity with
He said, “I’m asking for a mandate at the election from the people of Donegal to change how we do politics. We all know the political system is serving big banks, big business and big bureaucrats, and that ordinary Irish people play second fiddle. We need TDs that will change this, not follow party leaders.”
Cllr McBrearty who is well known locally and throughout Ireland for his stance against corruption and also the fact that he has already championed many local issues successfully claims he is a candidate the people can trust.
Cllr McBrearty said he always intended to run for the Dail and this was only solidified when the scandal within the Donegal County Council was brought to light in November on a RTE investigates programme.
Ireland’s most senior runner
In the northern end of the constituency there are two Independent candidates from Letterkenny; Ian McGarvey, the most senior runner in Ireland is based in Ramelton and will hope to build on his local election figure from 2014. Ian is contenting his tenth election having first run for the Milford Area in the local elections as a FF man back in 1974. He ran in several Council and Dail election until finally in 2004 he was elected to the Council on an Independent ticket…where he’s remained ever since
Cllr. Dessie Shiels who should poll reasonably strongly. Even with a solid vote Shiels must again appeal to voters in Inishowen, the Finn Valley and across the Milford area to get into the final shake up.
The fact that there are so many independents (seven so far) despite there being lots of independent voters, when it comes to later preferences they are likely to transfer on a local level and may not be advance the front runners on the non-party ticket.
Tribune Poll October 2015
While the Tirconaill Tribune Poll was some four months out from election day it is worth noting that some elements of the survey may well prove very relevant.
However in the interim there have been changes: John O’Donnell and Peter Casey have opted out of the race while Frank McBrearty has now thrown his hat into the ring as has Tim Jackson.
Back last October there was much speculation that Deputy Dinny McGinley might be persuaded to return to the race but he’s declined to take up that challenge.
In the final analysis our survey from 800 voters had SF on 34.5%: FF on 22.9%: FG on 21.2%: Independents on 19.7% and a factor of 9.2% of Don’t knows were excluded from the final analysis.
The survey with Don’t Knows included ran: SF 31.6%: FF 20.8%: FG 19.3%: Don’t Knows 9.3%.
The six front runners were Padraig MacLochlainn: Pearse Doherty: Joe McHugh: Charlie McConalgue: Pat the Cope Gallagher and Thomas Pringle.
What is the betting that this position will hold on polling day?
Agenda has not changed in 50 years
Between now and polling day the runners and their respective parties will appeal to your innermost emotions as the nation celebrates the 100th anniversary of the 1916 Rising. Back in 1966 as Ireland marked the 50 anniversary of the Rising the main political issues of the day were around health: housing and lack of funding for the infrastructure…. In so many ways the agenda remains much the same regardless of who is selected to lead the Government.
Back in 1977 Donegal was effectively one five seater, similar to 2016. In the consequent ten general elections we’ve voted to elect 166 TD’s.
Back then Donegal elected two FF Deputies: Fine Gael also had two TDs and Deputy Neil T. Blaney took a seat for Independent Fianna Fail.
The share of the vote was FF 36.4%: FG 36.3% and IFF won a share of 22.8%.
For so many those were the days…