The results of a TG4/Ipsos B&A Donegal constituency poll revealed this evening show Fianna Fáil could win two seats in Donegal while Fine Gael might not win any.
It said FG are unlikely to retain the seat won by Joe McHugh in 2020 and that 100% Redress candidate, Charles Ward, will struggle to get elected.
Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty tops the poll with 22 per cent while his party colleague, Pádraig MacLochlainn, is on 11 percent and should get elected with the help of Doherty’s surplus and Noel Jordan’s transfers.
One percentage point separates the two Fianna Fáil candidates, Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher (13 per cent) and outgoing Minister for Agriculture, Food and Marine Charlie McConalogue (12 percent). It also states McConlogue appears to be more ‘transfer friendly’.
In 2020, it went down to the wire between the two candidates, with Conalogue eventually claiming the Fianna Fáil seat at the expense of ‘The Cope’.
The poll shows continued strong support for Sinn Féin in Donegal, ahead of their national polling. Pearse Doherty tops the poll well above the quota needed at 22 per cent. Pádraig MacLochlainn is on 11 per cent of the vote and is also well positioned to retain his seat. He will do so with the assistance of transfers from Noel Jordan (2 percent) who is running for the party in the south of the constituency, and from Pearse Doherty’s surplus.
Thomas Pringle (11 per cent) won a seat in 2020 with fewer first-preference votes than he registered in this Donegal poll. He will, however, be hopeful of retaining his seat on transfers and is very transfer friendly in this poll as was his form in previous elections.
The three far right candidates polled poorly.
The poll, however, was taken from a sample of 543 and attaches a margin of error of about plus or minus four percentage points.
How Donegal will vote in the upcoming General Election. * = 0.0 – 0.5%.
The Donegal constituency is a five-seater, with a quota of 17%. The TG4/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted by phone on Friday and Saturday of last week (15th and 16th November), as nominations were closing. Two other independent candidates, Vincent Bradley and Arthur Mc Guinness have since declared their candidature.
Fine Gael may not win a seat in Donegal according to the poll results. Joe McHugh won a seat for the party in 2020, but is not running in this election, and neither is his 2020 running mate Martin Harley. Standing for Fine Gael this time are John McNulty (6 percent) and Senator Nikki Bradley (6 percent). It looks unlikely that these first-time General Election candidates will benefit from a ‘Harris hop’. Transfers from a Fine Gael candidate could help secure a second seat for Fianna Fáil.
Redress for homes damaged by defective blocks is a key issue in Donegal. Charles Ward of the 100% Redress Party is polling at 6 per cent, and campaigners are likely to be disappointed with this result. Charles Ward wasn’t successful in the local elections in June, and it was speculated that 100% Redress would run one of the four elected councillors, with a particular focus on the Inishowen peninsula.
